Why is Russia Invading Ukraine? | The Buildup To The Russia-Ukraine War
Russia and Ukraine's long history finally boiled over in February 2022, but why exactly is Russia invading Ukraine? It may seem like it just happened suddenly but believe it or not, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been brewing for years...
This story is part of the series "Why is Russia Invading Ukraine?"
Story Chapters
The First Military Buildup
Russia began to build up troops on the Russia-Ukraine border in April 2021. The European Union estimated that there were around 100,000 troops on the border. Russia had also been holding training exercises with its navy in the Black Sea and its army in Crimea.
Russia says they were preparing to counter any unfavorable development with NATO. In addition, they sought to counter the US Army’s Defender-Europe military exercise. Defender-Europe is a yearly exercise that involves many European countries partnering with the US to train their troops.
However, Russia backed down weeks later.
Putin’s Demands
According to NPR, Putin really only has three goals for Russian security…
1. It doesn’t want Ukraine to join NATO:
Russia wants to keep Ukraine within its influence and doesn’t want NATO to be able to build up military resources on Russia’s border
2. Make sure NATO is not within striking distance of Russia:
Again, Russia doesn’t want NATO and Ukraine to be able to attack Russia
3. Russia wants autonomy for eastern Ukraine:
Eastern Ukraine is more pro-Russia, and Russia would probably be able to annex the eastern regions of Ukraine to prevent NATO from influencing them
Putin and Russia believe these to be key parts of Russia’s security. And it makes sense. NATO was created to defend against the communist Soviet Union’s influence and potential invasion.
However, from the Russian perspective, the Soviet Union is gone. And if NATO is "defensive," then why are they expanding it to the Russian border? And why are they building up their militaries on the Russian border?
With these goals in mind, Putin made these nine demands in December 2021…
Both NATO and Russia will strive to find peaceful solutions. Nobody will strengthen their military at the expense of the other’s security. Nobody will create plans for an invasion of the others. Everybody will use peaceful means, not military force, to reach solutions to disputes
Communication will remain intact between NATO and Russia.
Both NATO and Russia establish that they are not enemies
NATO will not deploy militaries in member countries that joined NATO after 1997
Both NATO and Russia will not deploy short-range missiles to places where they can threaten the other
NATO will not expand any further, including Ukraine
Both NATO and Russia will not conduct military exercises in Ukraine. Both sides will agree to a buffer zone from each side of NATO and Russia’s border, where large army groups will not be allowed to perform military drills
This agreement doesn’t interfere with the purpose of the UN Security Council
Countries that sign will be bound to the agreement, and can withdraw at anytime
According to the West, these demands are impossible. The agreement favors Russia. The agreement to not deploy troops near Russia’s borders puts NATO at a disadvantage if Russia does decide to invade. And besides, Russia has in the past broken one or two of their demands, right?
But on the other hand, it gives a buffer zone between Russia and NATO. And if NATO’s intentions are pure, then they should have no real problem moving troops and weapons away from the Russian border, right?
NATO refuses to guarantee to reject Ukrainian membership, in part because they have an "open door" policy. This means that countries that want to join NATO will not be turned down if they meet the requirements. And no matter how much Russia petitions against Ukrainian membership, NATO will not bend to pressure.
So, NATO rejected the agreement but did agree to sit down and negotiate to bring about an agreement.
Unrest In Eastern Ukraine
In the time between 2021 and the 2004 Orange Revolution, the easternmost part of Ukraine experienced political and military turmoil. There are two specific regions in eastern Ukraine that have attracted the media’s attention during Russia’s invasion: Luhansk and the Donbas/Donetsk.
During the 2004 Orange Revolution, parts of eastern Ukraine threatened to secede from Ukraine? Well, Luhansk and Donetsk were regions that generally favored Russia. And soon after the 2014 crisis, pro-Russian forces took control of these two regions. After that, they held referendums that voted to leave Ukraine. They created the Luhansk People’s Republic and the Donetsk People’s Republic.
In response, Ukraine’s military entered the area to take back control. Russia responded by sending humanitarian and military aid to the separatists. Over the next year, Ukraine and Russia sent soldiers to contain the situation. However, the conflict displaced and killed thousands. Fortunately, a ceasefire turned down the pressure.
Unfortunately, fighting continued, and eventually, the death toll reached 14,000 by the beginning of the 2022 Russian invasion.
3 Ways Putin Has Prepared Russia For War
In 2014, the US and European Union put sanctions on Russia. Essentially, sanctions are when a country suspends trade and other economic activities with another country to weaken their economy.
So, in anticipation of future sanctions against Russia, Putin did a few things to counter them…
1. Building A New Money Reserve
The US dollar is the reserve currency for most of the world. Many countries’ currencies and economies around the world depend on the dollar to hold up their economies. In other words, the value of many countries’ money is directly affected by how much the US dollar is worth.
And a lot of Russia’s money was backed by US dollars, which made Russia more dependent on America. So, Putin switched a lot of Russia’s reserves from dollars to other currencies and gold. Around five years ago, 40% of Russia’s reserves were backed with US dollars. Now in 2023, only 16% of Russia’s reserves is made up of US dollars, which significantly reduces Russia’s dependence on the American economy.
2. Pivoting From The West to Other Countries
In the early 2000s, Putin led the formation of a partnership between Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The new unofficial alliance was called BRICS, with a letter for each participating nation. Since then, Russia has strengthened cooperation with the other BRICS countries in military, economic, and diplomatic policies.
Together, BRICS hold significant influence in the international community. The five countries make up around 25% of the world’s total GDP and landmass. They also make up 42% of the world’s population. Recently, Russia has also been more cooperative with China. Instead of relying on European and American markets, Russia has shifted to working with China.
3. Securing Russia
Russia has also been securing its position, trading growth for stability. Russia’s economy has only been growing on average at less than 1% per year. But what it’s lost in financial growth, Russia has gained in self-reliance and not needing the West as much.
And while Russia has been striving to separate itself from Europe, it has also been developing Europe’s dependence on Russia. Through supplying gas to Europe, Russia has both built partnerships with European countries and made Europe reliant on Russian gas. And it seems to have worked.
Before the war, Russia supplied around 40% of Europe’s natural gas. At the beginning of the war, Russia cut off most of its gas exports to Europe, and energy prices have been going up since. Natural gas is not just used to generate electricity but also to produce everyday items. So the gas cutoff is also causing most prices to increase as well.
The Second Military Buildup and Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
Eventually, Russia built up military forces on the Ukraine border again in early 2022 after the nine demands he made in late 2021. As mentioned before, NATO rejected Putin’s demands, causing a series of negotiations to try and reach an agreement, fearing what would happen next. No agreement was found, and Russia started building troops on the border.
Russia and their ally Belarus began performing military drills together. Soon enough, around 30,000 Russian troops were ready to invade. While the US was convinced Russia was going to invade soon, Ukraine was still trying to keep the peace and calm its citizens.
Remember how Luhansk and Donetsk seceded from Ukraine? Both governments claimed that Ukraine was planning an invasion and that citizens should flee to Russia. Putin was "advised" to stop the escalating violence in eastern Ukraine by officially intervening.
America claimed that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine. Ukraine began to call up troops. Soon enough, on February 24, 2022, after twenty-two years of changing Russia, Vladimir Putin announced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine...
How Russia’s History Influenced the Invasion
According to Russians, one question most Westerners should ask is "What is Russia?"
Russian identity is very hard to define. The first form of the modern country of Russia was the Kievan Rus, an empire that stretched from Ukraine to western Russia. Russia, unlike the United States or Ireland, lacks a distinct and well-defined identity.
Both the Irish and Americans originate from separatist and independence movements that clearly defined "us and them." Russia never had this, and historically, it has been a unifier. An obvious example is the Soviet Union, an empire encompassing multiple countries united under Russia.
And before you make the assumption that only Putin wants a Russian invasion of Ukraine, most Russians, from the bottom up, support it. Putin’s approval rating jumped from 71% to 83% after the invasion, according to Statistica and the Levada Center. Even Putin’s most critical opponent, Alexei Navalny, has supported Russians and Ukrainians as one people.
Conclusion
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is like most conflicts and issues in our time: very complicated. It's a conflict with loads of history behind it. Russia itself is a unique country that thinks very differently from the rest of the world and is deeply rooted in its history. One could say Russia's invasion is because of the fall of the Soviet Union, because of NATO, or because of the separatist movements in eastern Ukraine, and all would be right in a way. However, the reality is that probably all of them are true.
Do You Support The War in Ukraine?
Yes
No
So why is Russia invading Ukraine? In short, Russia is invading Ukraine to stop NATO's influence on its border, prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, aid the Ukrainian separatists in eastern Ukraine, and to establish Russia's dominance in the region.
